Bitcoin has recently been trading around $80,500, marking a daily increase of 3.11% as reported by Bitstamp. Despite the robust price action, certain technical metrics hint at an underlying struggle in momentum. Notably, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) ascended to 81, an area traditionally believed to be overbought.
Weekly Chart: A Cautious Perspective?
A crypto trader known as BitcoinHypers notes a possible hidden bearish divergence on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. This arises as the price creates a lower peak near $80,000 while the weekly RSI forms a higher one. This discord might suggest that the momentum behind the price ascent isn’t strengthening significantly.
A divergence between weekly RSI and price structure warns of potential slowdown; however, this outlook alone doesn’t confirm a strong downturn.
Technical analysts emphasize that such divergence alone cannot be considered a sell signal. A clearer weakening indication would require the price to lose support areas in longer time frames, alongside structural deterioration. Given that Bitcoin still remains above key moving averages, there isn’t a definitive trend break.
Is the $82,800 – $84,500 Range a Crucial Zone?
Ali Martinez highlights the significance of the $83,000 to $84,500 range as a critical resistance area, aligning closely with the May 2026 peak at $83,000. Short-term resistance is observed at the $80,863 level, acting as a classic pivot point.
If Bitcoin settles above $80,863, a retest of the $83,000 area could be likely. Conversely, failure at this resistance could prolong sideways movement or trigger a more profound pullback. Thus, investors are advised to monitor not just the resistance but also the nearby supports.
Are Profit-Taking Pressures Increasing?
On-chain data supports the cautious outlook. Ali Martinez reports that the average profit margin for Bitcoin traders has reached approximately 25% according to CryptoQuant. Historically, such levels have preceded profit-taking and short-term corrections over the past year. This data doesn’t predict the timing or magnitude of a decline but indicates growing unrealized gains in the market.
As traders’ average profit margin hits 25%, the pressure for profit realization increases around Bitcoin’s resistance zones.
Not all indicators are pointing to weakening. Glassnode, a research firm in on-chain data and market analytics, reported that the Bitcoin Vector impulse indicator has turned positive after recent lows. This change coincided with a roughly 20% increase in Bitcoin. Additionally, Glassnode identifies the next significant liquidity area around $82,800.
Historical comparisons also suggest caution. Ali Martinez notes that while present conditions resemble the recovery phase between 2022 and 2023 in some aspects, this doesn’t imply a direct repeat. Currently, the $77,000 to $78,000 range serves as crucial short-term support; its breach might lead to deeper corrections with $63,111 in focus as a correction zone.
