In a significant development, Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, igniting speculation that the bear market could be ending. Historically, surpassing this average has been a precursor to substantial price increases. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed a noteworthy net inflow of $592.5 million in the last two days of the week.
What’s Behind Bitcoin’s Recent Surge?
Bitcoin experienced a 6% increase in value in the week ending September 20, ultimately contributing to a 29% rise over the past 35 days. Currently trading around $81,600, it surpassed the 50-week moving average of approximately $78,115, representing a significant milestone. According to Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, this closing could signal the end of Bitcoin’s downturn, a notion supported by historical patterns.
Will History Repeat Itself?
It might. According to Galaxy’s analysis spanning back to 2011, this scenario has been observed in 13 instances. In 11 cases, Bitcoin failed to retreat below preceding low points after reclaiming the average. These historical patterns offer insight into Bitcoin’s resilience and potential for recovery.
For example, after the collapse in 2011, Bitcoin surpassed the 50-week moving average in January 2012, heralding a rise from close to $2 to $1,200 by late 2013. Similarly, the October 2015 rally after the 2014–2015 bear market didn’t see the prior lows revisited, culminating in a peak of about $20,000 in 2017.
Such trends continued past 2018. After the average was reclaimed in May 2019, Bitcoin witnessed a significant price increase, reaching beyond $69,000 in November 2021. Though brief dips occurred, including late 2021 and early 2022, Bitcoin regained the average by March 2023, later peaking near $126,000 in October 2025.
- The 50-week moving average serves as a critical indicator of Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
- Restoring this average often precedes substantial price recovery.
- Multiple historical examples show the pattern’s consistency over time.
Recent data on spot Bitcoin ETFs suggests limited weekly net inflows, with substantial inflows in the final two trading days mitigating earlier outflows. The strongest daily net inflow of $433 million occurred on September 18, driven significantly by FBTC. However, despite these fluctuations, the next steps for Bitcoin—and whether history will repeat itself—remain to be seen.
