Bitcoin has broken through its previous range to hit a significant milestone of $86,913, a level not seen since September 23. This surge represents a robust 14.6% increase from its low on September 15. The movement has been buoyed by notable ETF inflows and heightened activity in the derivatives market, while bond yields remain a crucial determinant for the rally’s continuation.
ETF Inflows Propel Bitcoin Beyond Gold
According to a QCP report dated October 2, Bitcoin’s ascent contrasts sharply with trends in the bond market. The U.S. 30-year bond yield hit 5.62%, with the 10-year yield briefly reaching 5.29%. Meanwhile, real interest rates adjusted for inflation climbed 44 basis points in September, despite little change in market-inflation forecasts.
QCP attributes these movements not to an inflation shock but to robust growth expectations, a high supply of Treasury bonds, weak auctions, and price-sensitive buyers. These conditions necessitate higher real returns to attract bond buyers.
Gold, impacted by rising real rates, suffered an 8.5% decline in September, marking its worst monthly performance of the year. Conversely, Bitcoin gained 12% over the same period, with QCP citing focused fund allocation, regulatory developments, and favorable technical indicators as contributors to this divergence.
After a turbulent first half of the year, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.5 billion in August and $2.6 billion in September. QCP views the SEC’s exemption on September 17 as the first concrete regulatory catalyst since the CLARITY Act stalled. However, regulatory structure for the market postpones until 2027, indicating executive and regulator-driven support rather than legislative approval.
Employment Data and Leverage Positions Under Scrutiny
Markets await the U.S. nonfarm payroll report, scheduled to be released today at 3:30 PM CET. FactSet’s projections suggest a job growth of 90,000 for September, down from 162,000 in August. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%.
Following dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, the likelihood of an October rate hike has dropped from 70% to 30%. However, unexpectedly strong employment figures could revive rate hike expectations, potentially exerting pressure on Bitcoin.
Oliver Carding, Marketing Manager at Tesseract Group, which manages $500 million in assets, is closely monitoring employment data and the upcoming October 14 consumer inflation report for their effects on long-term bond yields. Carding suggests that if the 10-year real rate maintains above approximately 3%, Bitcoin may retest the $80,000–$82,000 range rather than approaching $90,000.
In anticipation of this critical data, derivative market positions are expanding. Data from CoinGlass shows that open interest in Bitcoin futures and perpetual contracts rose from 626,000 BTC on September 30 to approximately 653,000 BTC. This increase of about 4.3%, or 27,000 BTC, equates to $2.3 billion, taking the total open interest value to around $56.2 billion.
During the same period, Bitcoin’s value rose from approximately $83,500 to $86,500, suggesting that new positions contributed to the rally. While open interest growth alone does not indicate trade direction, the funding rate’s jump from about 3% to 10% indicates strong demand for long positions in anticipation of further upward movement. Funding rates at Hyperliquid and OKX hover between 9%–10%, while Deribit’s quarterly futures contracts maintain an annualized premium above 6%.
Despite this, open interest was near 12-month lows at the end of September, indicating a recovery from a low baseline. High funding rates increase the cost of maintaining long positions, making leveraged investors more vulnerable to sudden market reversals.
Option markets continue to see a dominance of bullish trades. QCP notes a shift of investors rolling their October $90,000 strike call options to November maturities. This trend reflects positioning for the post-election period in the U.S., where midterms and the Treasury’s borrowing strategy will be focal points.
Over the past 24 hours, $344 million in crypto positions were liquidated, compared to $100 million the previous day. Of these liquidations, 72% were short positions, and 28% were long. Bitcoin accounted for $132 million and Ethereum for $70 million of the liquidations.
QCP highlights $82,500 as crucial support that has held three times this week. Breaching the $87,400 resistance could pave the way for a $90,000 target. This level, conspicuous on Binance‘s liquidation map, alongside employment data’s impact on bond yields, will be closely watched for the rally’s progression.
