Bitcoin is striving to break through the $87,000 mark, a pivotal area for gauging long-term trend direction, as global markets reacted positively to diminishing expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Despite on-chain indicators suggesting potential recovery, the substantial resistance at this level remains a decisive factor for Bitcoin’s next move.
Fed Policy Shift Alters Market Dynamics
This week, higher-than-forecast inflation data did not prompt Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to adopt a hawkish stance, leading to reduced anticipation of rate hikes. Simultaneously, September data from Bitcoin miners highlighted decreases in output and fresh data center investments.
As of October 16, Bitcoin encounters resistance at the 20-month simple moving average of $87,165. Historically, surpassing this threshold has led to new cycle highs, underscoring its significance.
“This average also forms the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator,” notes CryptoQuant, identifying it as one of the key price areas where market cycle trends can shift direction. The upper Bollinger Band is at $121,640, with the lower at $52,694. The zone between the lower band and the 20-month average is termed the accumulation area, while the moving average marks the boundary of trend reversals.
CryptoQuant analyst GugaOnChain believes the market has rebalanced following Bitcoin’s all-time high of $124,709 on October 6, 2025. According to the analyst, it’s premature to deem the current price range as the peak of the bullish cycle, as on-chain indicators still hint at further upward potential.
“Bitcoin’s opening price for this year was $87,490, with a concentration of sell orders around the same range, making the $87,000 region a formidable resistance,” the analyst observes.
Xwin Research Japan, another analyst from CryptoQuant, expressed cautious optimism about the bullish momentum recovering by month’s end, based on three on-chain indicators. Company CEO Ki Young Ju argued that the bear market ended at the end of August, supported by the rise in the indicator of bull and bear market cycles from 0.042 to 0.186.
Nevertheless, moving averages and Bollinger Bands alone do not confirm a price increase. Achieving a breakthrough of critical resistances is essential for Bitcoin to support its bullish expectations.
Production Declines Yet Investments Continue Among Miners
Bitcoin miners listed on U.S. exchanges, including CleanSpark and BitFuFu, reported a decline in September production. Meanwhile, Canaan maintained its output, ending a three-month decline streak.
CleanSpark’s production dropped by approximately 11%, from 593 Bitcoins in August to 529 in September. The company’s holdings decreased from 13,703 to 13,530 Bitcoins. CleanSpark sold 2 Bitcoins on the spot market and an additional 700 Bitcoins at an average price of $72,928 due to exercised purchase options.
Shifting from monthly to quarterly reporting, CleanSpark completed a $2.276 billion senior secured bond issuance to expand data center operations in Sandersville, Georgia. The project is anticipated to generate about $6.6 billion in revenue.
BitFuFu saw its total production decrease by about 4%, from 174 to 167 Bitcoins. Despite a significant over 11% increase in Bitcoins mined through its own operations, from 88 to 98, cloud mining production fell from 86 to 69 Bitcoins, reducing overall output. The company’s holdings increased from 1,373 to 1,388 Bitcoins.
BitFuFu faces challenges with an 80-megawatt facility in Ethiopia due to a dispute between the facility operator and the local electricity supplier. As a result, the company is considering contract cancellation as an option to withdraw part of its investment. BitFuFu has invested approximately $4.1 million in the project, deploying about 13,700 Bitmain Antminer S19 devices.
Canaan maintained its output at 44 Bitcoins in September, keeping pace with August, and increased its holdings from 1,868 to 1,875 Bitcoins. Announcing the full operation of an 8-megawatt waste heat project in Northern Europe, Canaan provides heating for about 2,800 households using heat generated by mining devices. The company is also developing a similar project in Canada. Despite operational investments, all three companies’ shares have seen significant declines since the beginning of the year, with CleanSpark trading at $8.76 as of October 16, reflecting a loss exceeding 24%. BitFuFu and Canaan shares are at $1.27 and $0.25, respectively, with losses surpassing 54% and 68%.
French investment firm Capital B, which holds Bitcoin as a treasury reserve, reported a net loss of €69.5 million (approximately $78 million) in the first half of the year. Despite this, the company continued its acquisitions, increasing its Bitcoin holdings by about 11% from 2,823 at the start of the year to 3,139 by the end of June. By the end of September, total holdings had reached 3,538 Bitcoins.
