According to recent data from Glassnode, in the last 90 trading sessions in U.S. markets, Bitcoin has managed to outperform the S&P 500 in half of those sessions. This marks a turnaround for Bitcoin, which had previously been lagging behind the stock index for a prolonged period.
Reset in 90-Day Trading Dynamics
Glassnode’s latest figures indicate that during the 90-day moving period ending Wednesday, Bitcoin outpaced the S&P 500’s performance in 50% of the trading sessions on Wall Street. This contrasts with earlier trends, where Bitcoin’s winning sessions were outnumbered by its losing ones.
Glassnode observed that Bitcoin’s session-based winning percentage had not exceeded 50% since March 2025, with much of the past year showing more losing sessions against the S&P 500.
Further analysis also reveals that Bitcoin’s average return per session is slightly higher than that of the S&P 500, suggesting modest improvements not only in the number of winning sessions but also in session performance.
Midterm Election Outcomes Bolster Equities
In the backdrop of these developments, U.S. midterm election outcomes remain a focal point for market watchers. Historical data shared by crypto asset management firm Capriole Investments indicates that following elections where Democrats secured both Congressional chambers during a Republican presidency, the S&P 500 saw robust gains.
Excluding the current election, Democrats managed such a Congressional sweep in seven of the 26 midterms since 1922. In these cases, the S&P 500 rose by an average of 10.7% over the following three months, with average gains of 17.5% over six months and 15.5% over one year.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, stated, “There could not be a better election outcome for the markets.”
Strengthening Correlation Since August
Data from TradingView highlight a significant uptick in the 20-day moving correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, currently standing at 0.63. This uptick underscores an apparent alignment in the movements of both assets in recent times.
Since August, the correlation has distinctly shifted to a positive territory. During this period, both crypto assets and equities have recorded upward momentum. This synchronization is further reinforced by the U.S. Treasury’s expansion of debt-buyback operations, fostering a shared direction in market price movements.
These findings suggest that while Bitcoin maintains its short-term linkage to stock markets, it has regained strength in relative performance over the past 90 sessions.
