Bitcoin has closed below its 50-week moving average for the first time in seven weeks, ending the week at $74,968. According to Galaxy Research, this marks a 0.7% drop below the critical level of $75,488, prompting questions about whether the cryptocurrency can sustain its recent momentum.
Historical Patterns Echo in Current Cycle
Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Research, suggests that this recent slip might be more of a false alarm than a lasting downturn. He points out that Bitcoin often dips below this average shortly after emerging from bear market lows, a pattern observed in previous four-year cycles.
Alex Thorn notes, “After staying above the 50-week average for seven weeks, Bitcoin has fallen back below it in a manner similar to occurrences seen in 2011-2012 and 2019-2020. In those instances, it did not close below previous dip levels on a weekly basis.”
In the 2011-2012 cycle, Bitcoin stayed above the average for seven weeks after bottoming out at $2.20, only to dip again for 20 weeks, hitting $4.39 at its lowest—a level still 99% over its absolute low. Meanwhile, during the 2019-2020 cycle, Bitcoin fell below the 50-week average five times after hitting a low of $3,195, spending a total of 13 weeks beneath the marker. In March 2020, pandemic-related sell-offs pushed the price to $5,359, 38% below the average, yet 68% above the previous low.
Current Cycle’s Critical Benchmark Set at $59,517
In the current cycle, Bitcoin’s price has retracted 51.8% from its October 2025 peak of $123,524 to a June low of $59,517. Though the price reached $81,195 after recovering above the 50-week moving average, it currently trades 7.7% below this recovery mark, but remains 26% above June’s low.
The 50-week moving average is considered a key technical indicator for tracking long-term price trends. By analyzing the average closing price over the past 50 weeks, it provides insights into the cyclical nature of the market.
Galaxy Research reports that on-chain data reveal a tendency toward accumulation in the spot market, driven by large investors and prevailing market sentiment. However, it suggests that Bitcoin must reclaim and sustain the 50-week average within the next month to maintain its bullish structure.
Thorn cautions that the limited number of historical cycles makes drawing definitive conclusions challenging. He emphasizes that historical dip levels can only be confirmed retrospectively, with a wide margin for error adding to the uncertainty.
For Galaxy Research, the pivotal level for this four-year cycle is $59,517, a threshold that could affirm the validity of the bullish narrative if maintained.
