Over the past two days, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen substantial net outflows, totaling $296 million. This shift coincides with corporate Bitcoin holders seeing their cumulative purchase ratio fall below 90%, a sign that sales are prevailing. CryptoQuant analyst CW highlights the potential implications of changes in stablecoin supply for Bitcoin’s recovery trajectory.
IBIT Dominates ETF Outflows Amidst Selling Pressures
On November 9, Bitcoin spot ETFs registered a net outflow of $201 million, followed by an additional $95 million on November 10. The latter equates to approximately 1,260 BTC. Particularly noteworthy is the IBIT fund, which recorded the largest withdrawals, with $213.2 million on the first day and $78.24 million on the second. Other notable movements included a $9.9 million withdrawal from ARKB on November 9 and $36.79 million from FBTC on November 10. In contrast, MSBT managed a net inflow of $22.1 million and $20.03 million over the two days.
“November 11 data shows a daily trading volume of $2.74 billion, with total net assets at $99.01 billion,” notes CryptoQuant. “Cumulative net inflows remain at $55.86 billion.”
The declining outflows on the second day suggest a reduction in selling pressure on the funding front. This shift could indicate a momentary stabilization in the ETF market’s dynamics.
Decline in Corporate Accumulation Hints at Market Bottom
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Fund, describes the drop in the purchase-to-sale ratio among firms holding Bitcoin reserves as a “capitulation.” This reduction suggests a shift towards more pronounced sales activity among these companies. Historically, Edwards points out, similar circumstances have coincided with market bottom formations and presented substantial buying opportunities, potentially signaling an imminent Bitcoin price recovery.
Stablecoin Supply May Influence Bitcoin’s Direction
CryptoQuant analyst CW warns of Bitcoin’s stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) nearing a crossover threshold, which may act as a bearish signal. This crossover occurs when short-term moving averages fall below long-term averages in technical analysis. SSR indicates the ratio of Bitcoin’s market value to the total market value of stablecoins, and its decline could signify increased liquidity for purchasing Bitcoin.
CW suggests that an increase in stablecoin supply could enhance Bitcoin’s recovery by boosting potential purchasing power, while a supply contraction might tighten liquidity and increase selling pressure.
“The reduction in ETF outflows reveals dampened selling pressure on the fund side,” Edwards adds — a historical pattern of market dips now potentially pointing to recovery as stablecoin liquidity affects Bitcoin purchases.
As these dynamics unfold, market watchers remain keen on whether stablecoin liquidity shifts will usher in a recovery phase or signal a continued decline for Bitcoin.
