Bitcoin fell below $67,500 today, marking its lowest point since mid-August. The leading cryptocurrency was trading at $69,250 at the time of this reporting. November has seen a net outflow of $1.9 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, as market observers monitor Bitcoin’s pricing in relation to its 200-week moving average.
Bitcoin Tests the 200-Week Moving Average
For the first time since August 19, Bitcoin dipped below its 200-week simple moving average, currently pegged at $67,993. Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, warns that if the weekly relative strength index (RSI) drops below 41.5, Bitcoin could revisit its recent cycle low of $57,700. The RSI level has acted as a support since late July. Alan remains optimistic that Bitcoin may rebound if it holds its current support zone.
Doctor Profit expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s $68,000 range, indicating increased buying activity in this area.
The investor pointed to the Fibonacci retracement ‘golden pocket’ and the 200-week average as key indicators of Bitcoin’s historical bear market troughs. Remembering the June fluctuation to $60,000 before a surge to $87,000, Doctor Profit does not foresee a new low in the current cycle.
Dollar Strength and MSCI Decisions Fuel Selling Pressure
The U.S. Dollar Index surged past 103 on November 13, a first since April 2025, while Bitcoin fell 5.9% from November 5-12, in contrast to Nasdaq 100’s 6.4% rise. This divergence underlines Bitcoin’s heightened sensitivity to the robust dollar and rising U.S. bond yields compared to tech stocks.
A significant shift at Nvidia, where Colette Kress replaced Jensen Huang as interim CEO on November 12, added to the wave of selling.
Simultaneously, MSCI’s November review resulted in Strategy being reclassified as an inactive company, removing it from the MSCI USA Index. Amongst others, Upexi—holding reserves in Metaplanet and Solana—was also removed from MSCI indices.
JPMorgan estimates this move could impose a $2.8 billion selling pressure on Strategy shares.
Prolonged ETF Outflows Trigger Extreme Fear Index Levels
According to SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have endured five consecutive days of net outflows, totaling roughly $1.9 billion since November began, with $1.8 billion stemming from BlackRock’s IBIT fund. On November 13, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged by 8 points to 20, entering the extreme fear category for the first time since July.
Analyst Murphy highlighted significant realized losses from both short- and long-term investors offloaded to trading platforms on November 12.
Total investor losses now parallel those observed during the June-July downturn. Murphy attributes the rising selling pressure to events like the anomalies on Binance, an unexpectedly high U.S. inflation rate, and post-midterm election concerns over AI infrastructure limitations.
Stablecoin Supply Shrinks, Market Liquidity Falters
Glassnode data indicate a $14.2 billion contraction in stablecoin supply over the past month— the sharpest since June 2022, suggesting investors are liquidating stablecoins for cash. Glassnode notes that new capital inflows remain weak.
Data from Talos shows that Bitcoin order book depth on major exchanges has dipped slightly above $70 million, approximately 33% below normal levels according to senior research analyst Tanay Ved. Elevated leverage coupled with thinning order books could accelerate a price drop if selling resumes.
Bitcoin’s return to $69,250 potentially re-establishes its footing above the 200-week average. A slowdown in ETF outflows could bolster this rebound’s durability. However, persistent fund withdrawals and limited buy orders could bring the $68,000 vicinity under pressure again, risking a scenario where Bitcoin plunges below $60,000 amidst other negative forces.
