Bitcoin‘s price fell below $39,000 on January 23 for the first time in over 50 days, with a 17.5% correction over 12 days leading to $385 million in liquidations in the futures market. This drop coincided with the beginning of a sell-off on January 11 and the approval of spot Bitcoin ETF applications by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) showed a rebound, indicating investors’ confidence in the U.S. currency despite fiscal challenges. The dollar gained momentum after hitting a 5-month low of 100.80 on December 28, 2023, and is currently trading around 103.75.
Analysts and economists now see a higher probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve successfully reducing inflation without causing an economic downturn. The one-year outlook for the U.S. has improved, with inflation expectations dropping from 3.09% in December 2023 to 2.43% in January 2024, and the Conference Board’s Economic Forecast suggests a recession is unlikely with expected GDP growth in the first two quarters of 2024.
The CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates a decreased likelihood of an interest rate cut in March, from 81% to 47%, with investors now anticipating only 5 rate cuts throughout 2024, one less than previously expected. New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic have expressed no rush to lower rates even without further increases.
Bitcoin faces its own challenges, including a net total spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflow since January 17. The total number of Bitcoins held by U.S.-listed ETF products dropped to 645,054 on January 22, indicating investor sentiment conflicting with expectations following the spot ETF launch. Concerns also arise from the potential release of 142,000 Bitcoins by the bankrupt crypto exchange Mt. Gox’s estate, with some payments already made in December 2023 and more expected by October 2024. Regulatory pressures on stablecoins and exchanges also loom as potential risks.
