Investors are closely watching altcoins in anticipation of a much-awaited bull run. Although finding a conclusive answer remains challenging, historical patterns offer some insights. The Working Channel Money YouTube channel has shared its expectations for altcoins in 2024-2025 and predictions on when their peak might be observed.
What is the 546-Day Factor?
The channel highlights that in previous cycles, altcoins peaked exactly 546 days after Bitcoin‘s block reward halving. If this pattern persists, the next altcoin peak could occur in October 2025. This model was noted in the 2016 and 2020 cycles, suggesting a similar trend for 2025.
However, the peak timing for altcoins can be influenced by various factors. Cycle acceleration and macroeconomic conditions might lead to an earlier peak. Although relying on just two data points may seem simplistic, it indicates that we are still in the early stages of the current altcoin cycle. Presently, Bitcoin’s market dominance is rising, and despite increased trading volume, altcoins remain in the background. The overall market value hovers around $2.45 trillion with a neutral sentiment.
Will Altcoins See a 60% Increase?
Working Channel Money examined the total market value of altcoins excluding Bitcoin, noting it is about 60% below the all-time high. Historically, when this value reaches its peak, altcoins tend to rise dramatically. Considering that around two months have passed since the block reward halving, a 60% increase in altcoin market value excluding Bitcoin is needed to reach the peak, followed by the peak explosion within the 546-day window.
Key Takeaways for Investors
– Altcoins historically peak 546 days after Bitcoin’s halving.
– Market value of altcoins excluding Bitcoin is 60% below the all-time high.
– Potential for significant upward movement during the Euphoria phase.
– Bitcoin and Ethereum are about 75% below their all-time high market values.
– Investors should consider both historical patterns and other market factors.
While historical models provide a framework for future trends, investors should exercise caution and consider additional factors that might influence the market. Currently, Bitcoin’s increasing dominance and trading volumes indicate a complex and dynamic environment.
