Dogecoin (DOGE) has been experiencing fluctuations in its value, largely due to recent Bitcoin (BTC) sales. The cryptocurrency had maintained a price around $0.1 but has seen losses increase. Current indicators, such as weakening open positions in futures and an active Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), suggest potential price shifts on the horizon.
What Do Futures Indicate?
The open interest (OI) in Dogecoin futures has dropped to $2.51 billion, the lowest since the start of the year. This decline follows significant liquidations and an uncertain market climate. A reduced number of open futures positions reflects declining interest, which might lead to a spot price drop as market participation wanes.
The reduction in open positions began on June 8, mirroring trends in other altcoins. From a peak of $10 billion a month ago, open positions have shrunk by 80%. This coincides with a 30% decrease in DOGE’s price, stabilizing at around $0.1.
Is a Price Rebound Possible?
Despite a negative funding rate in futures and pressure from short sales, CMF trends upward. With CMF at 0.03 above the zero line, there’s dominant money inflow in the spot market, indicating demand even as prices fall. If CMF maintains strength and BTC stays above $57,000, DOGE could see new highs.
In a potential recovery, DOGE could target peaks between $0.11 and $0.13. Conversely, if BTC fails to close above $58,000 and on-chain alarms persist, DOGE risks falling to $0.08. Investors remain cautious due to these market uncertainties.
Actionable Insights for Investors
- Monitor CMF trends for sustained positive inflow signals.
- Observe BTC’s ability to stay above critical price levels like $57,000 and $58,000.
- Prepare for potential DOGE price targets between $0.11 and $0.13 in case of market recovery.
- Stay vigilant for signs of further decline to $0.08 if BTC struggles and market fears persist.
- Consider the impact of external factors like Elon Musk’s support on DOGE’s market performance.
Investors may prefer to stay on the sidelines and observe the market, given the current volatility and lack of support from prominent figures like Elon Musk. The short-term outlook for DOGE remains uncertain, with both potential gains and risks in view.