Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a significant downturn after a period of gradual rise, affecting altcoin markets adversely. The search for a new daily low in BTC is causing sharp declines, with altcoins suffering notable losses due to the volatility in BTC prices. This ongoing volatility is preventing any substantial recovery in the altcoin sector. Among the affected altcoins, Cardano (ADA) is showing a strong signal for long-term investors.
Cardano’s Current Position
Cardano (ADA), previously the largest Proof of Stake (PoS) altcoin until Ethereum’s transition to PoS, has seen its price plummet over recent months. Despite this, a growing segment of investors are holding ADA for the long term. Data tracking wallet durations reveals that the number of long-term ADA investors has hit an all-time high of 3.2 million.
ADA Price Dynamics
Historical data indicates that the number of long-term ADA holders decreases during price peaks and increases during troughs. For instance, when ADA reached $3.1 in September 2021, long-term holdings reduced. Conversely, long-term holdings surged in January 2023, marking the start of a new bull cycle, with prices briefly peaking at $0.7.
Key Insights for Investors
Investor Insights:
- Monitor the number of long-term ADA holders as a potential indicator of price movement.
- Watch BTC market trends, as significant BTC movements impact altcoin performance.
- Track the MVRV ratio and RSI for ADA to identify potential dips and peaks.
Currently, with ADA prices around $0.33, the increasing number of long-term investors historically suggests a looming peak. However, BTC’s lack of support from major financial entities like NYSE and NASDAQ could stymie upward momentum.
Despite historical trends suggesting a rise, Cardano’s struggle to attract new users compared to competitors such as Solana could affect future price behavior. Observing metrics like the 30-day MVRV ratio, currently around -10%, is crucial. If the MVRV falls further, the short-term rise might not materialize.
Given that the RSI is below 40 and sellers dominate the market, ADA might drop to $0.31 unless the trend reverses, in which case targets of $0.37 and $0.45 are plausible.