The upcoming US Presidential Elections in November 2024 are generating significant market buzz, particularly in the cryptocurrency sector. Historically, the final quarter of the year is bullish for digital assets, and current trends suggest a similar pattern. With September’s performance reflecting past trends, there is growing optimism for a rebound in October. Additionally, the anticipated return of liquidity from the FTX exchange in the year’s last quarter further boosts market sentiment. But how does Bitcoin typically fare during US elections?
Bitcoin’s Historical Election Trends
Understanding Bitcoin’s past movements during major events is crucial. For example, policy shifts by the Federal Reserve have often led to short- or medium-term declines in risk markets, including cryptocurrencies. The Fed is expected to make its first interest rate cut in September, which has previously caused declines in both stocks and crypto assets.
Another significant driver for Bitcoin has been the excitement around the BTC ETF, propelling its price to new all-time highs even before the anticipated halving event. This momentum saw Bitcoin surge from $28,000 to over $45,000, with some altcoins experiencing fivefold gains.
Currently, the US Presidential Elections stand as the next major event. Historically, Bitcoin has seen price spikes following previous elections, reaching all-time highs. This pattern suggests a potential increase in Bitcoin’s price, possibly reaching six figures by the middle of next year, fueled by increased optimism in October and November.
What Do Labor Reports Indicate?
Recent US labor reports reveal a significant weakening in employment. August saw a 193% surge in layoffs compared to July, predominantly driven by tech companies, which announced the highest number of layoffs in 20 months. The education sector also reported a 222% increase in layoffs for 2024, further signaling a fragile labor market. This trend poses short-term risks for risk markets, including cryptocurrencies, particularly due to its negative impact on tech firms.
Key Takeaways
The following conclusions can be drawn from the current market trends and data:
- Bitcoin often experiences price surges during US election years.
- Upcoming liquidity from the FTX exchange could boost market conditions.
- Federal Reserve policy changes can lead to short-term market declines.
- Recent US labor market weaknesses might pose risks to tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.
As the US Presidential Elections approach, Bitcoin’s historical performance and current market conditions suggest a potential bullish trend. Investors are keenly watching these developments, anticipating significant price movements in the coming months.
