Prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen has forecasted that Cardano (ADA) might experience a decline in value relative to Bitcoin (BTC) by year-end. In a recent post on the social media platform X, Cowen observed that ADA has historically traded within a defined range against Bitcoin, and current market dynamics suggest this trend is likely to recur.
What Historical Trading Patterns Indicate?
Cowen highlighted that ADA’s trading history shows fluctuations between 400 and 4,000 satoshis against Bitcoin. He pointed out that such declines typically resurface towards the conclusion of halving years, hinting that 2023 may follow this established trend. His analysis suggests that current economic factors, including tight monetary policies, are poised to impact riskier assets negatively.
How Does Bitcoin’s Dominance Affect the Market?
Cowen emphasized that Bitcoin’s market share tends to grow in December during halving years. He explained that ongoing monetary tightening could further depress pairs like ADA/BTC. “The conclusion of quantitative tightening might have interrupted the ADA/BTC downtrend, but prevailing conditions are reinforcing it,” he noted.
The analysis of the ADA/BTC trading ratios from 2020 to 2024 reveals a consistent cyclical pattern. Cowen remarked that while altcoin/BTC pairs remain above historically low thresholds, the overall market conditions continue to apply pressure, hindering substantial upward movements.
- ADA is likely to drop in value relative to BTC.
- Current economic trends favor Bitcoin over altcoins.
- A potential long-term recovery for ADA remains plausible.
Market participants should remain vigilant, keeping a close watch on both historical trading patterns and the evolving economic landscape, as these factors will be crucial in navigating the complexities of the cryptocurrency market.