Standard Chartered, the prominent UK-based bank, has upheld its ambitious forecast for Bitcoin‘s value by the end of this year, asserting it could soar to $200,000. The head of Digital Asset Research at the bank, Geoffrey Kendrick, projects Bitcoin to climb to $135,000 by September’s close, followed by a remarkable surge to the forecasted $200,000 by December 31. This projection indicates a significant increase of $92,500 within a half-year span, from its current position around $107,500. The anticipated rise is largely credited to inflows into spot ETFs, corporate treasury inclusions, and forthcoming regulatory shifts.
What Fuels the Bitcoin Boom?
Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investors gathered 245,000 BTC, approximately $26 billion in worth, during the second quarter, as indicated by the report. Kendrick anticipates this trend to further escalate as passive fund investments persist and public corporations follow Strategy’s leveraged treasury scheme. Notably, entities apart from Strategy acquired 56,000 BTC in that quarter alone, approaching Strategy’s procurement of 69,000 BTC simultaneously.
With geopolitical turbulence enhancing crypto’s appeal as a safe haven, ETF inflows amounting to $12.4 billion surpassed those directed at gold ETFs from April to June, reinforcing Bitcoin’s macro asset stature. Limited short positions in hedge fund futures at the Chicago markets also seem to favor Bitcoin’s price.
Will Political Developments Influence Bitcoin’s Trajectory?
The current cycle, according to Kendrick, is less about supply disruptions and more about consistent capital inflows. Previously, Bitcoin observed an 18-month peak-to-trough following its halving, but the ETF and institutional players were absent then. Standard Chartered believes that long-term holders will reduce selling this year, with ETF inflows poised to offset potential profit-taking.
Three political triggers are pinpointed as catalysts for further gains: former President Donald Trump potentially ushering in a pro-rate-cut Fed Chair, bipartisan backing for the GENIUS stablecoin bill in Congress, and sovereign fund procurements appearing in 13F filings. These factors are expected to elevate 10-year Treasury yields, thereby enhancing Bitcoin’s potential market correlation.
Concrete takeaways from the report include:
– Spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutions amassed 245,000 BTC valued at about $26 billion in Q2.
– Inflows towards Bitcoin outstripped those in gold ETFs between April and June.
– Key political events could significantly impact Bitcoin’s valuation trajectory.
Enhancing Bitcoin’s appeal as an asset, the intertwined financial and political landscapes are poised to influence its course. Standard Chartered’s bold prediction, coupled with ongoing market and geopolitical factors, prepares stakeholders for a potentially unprecedented phase in the cryptocurrency’s history.
