As Bitcoin hovers around $113,000, market participants are keenly observing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s anticipated speech and the forthcoming core PCE inflation data set to be announced on September 26. The cryptocurrency market is searching for a decisive direction as it heads into October following recent volatility.
What Level is Critical for Bitcoin?
Analysts from Bitfinex have identified a critical level for Bitcoin at $115,200. They suggest that a daily close below this threshold could push the cryptocurrency into a $105,500 to $115,000 range. Despite recent $1.7 billion worth of liquidations, Bitcoin has rebounded to fall within $110,000 and $120,000, according to QCP Capital. The firm also notes notable demand for call options expiring at October’s end, valued between $120,000 and $125,000.
How Are Institutional Investors Reacting?
Institutional flows reveal divergent trends. Timothy Misir from BRN notes substantial outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling $363 million, and a $76 million decrease in Ethereum ETFs. However, contrary to this, on-chain data suggests accumulation trends by prominent investors. Wallets holding amounts between 10 and 10,000 BTC have added around 56,000 BTC since late August, while exchange balances have reduced by 31,000 BTC over the past month.
Glassnode’s data further emphasizes a contraction in open positions, declining from $44.8 billion to $42.8 billion, which reduces leverage pressure on Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the blockchain landscape shows Ethereum stabilizing near $4,200, contributing to a broader cryptocurrency market capitalization just shy of $4 trillion.
In recent activity, three significant exchange inflows have been recorded within the last 48 hours. Despite this, long-term holders maintain a buying stance. Experts believe Powell’s Rhode Island address, alongside the PCE inflation data release, will provide crucial insights into the future trajectory of the Fed’s rate strategy. Should inflation pressures be contained, potential liquidity additions might be introduced for the forthcoming months.
“We’ve noted substantial accumulation occurring amongst major BTC holders, despite ETF outflows,” noted Timothy Misir of BRN.
Key observations based on current data positions:
- $115,200 marks a vital price threshold for Bitcoin.
- Significant call option interest exists for valuations between $120,000-$125,000.
- Institutional activity is characterized by ETF outflows but alongside significant wallet accumulation.
- Reduced open positions suggest a decrease in leverage-driven pressure.
As market participants anticipate impending economic data and speeches, the behavior of both individual and institutional investors will likely play an influential role in Bitcoin’s price movement. The coin’s response to upcoming signals from Federal policy updates will be closely monitored by investors navigating the ever-evolving financial landscape.
