In October, many in the cryptocurrency sector had predicted a 25 basis point interest rate cut, with expectations of a similar adjustment in December. However, the anticipated moves did not materialize. While recent Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures were positive, earlier warnings highlighted potential employment gains, raising concerns. The week’s first major data release has now provided further insights.
Will Interest Rates Shift Soon?
Over the past weeks, discussions among Federal Reserve members revealed that inflation has been a primary focus. Apart from a minority, most members did not foresee significant employment declines. Recent employment statistics, along with today’s JOLTS and Consumer Confidence reports, offer alarming signs for both inflation and job markets.
The future of interest rates remains uncertain. The upcoming Non-Farm Employment and Unemployment data this Friday could suggest stable interest rates if the outcomes are favorable. This scenario might imply an increased risk of decline for cryptocurrencies. The crypto market, which sometimes seems unaffected by larger economic events, could face downturn pressures during exceptional periods.
What Does the US JOLTS Report Reveal?
Recent JOLTS data suggest an employment sector warning. Last month saw reduced job postings in construction and manufacturing, yet other sectors experienced growth. Compared to the previous year, hiring rates grew slightly, with job vacancies falling to 7.22M in August from 7.649M in July of the prior year. These numbers do not indicate a steady shrinkage in employment.
Current open job positions reflect stabilization: from the 7.649M in August 2024, growing to 7.712M in May 2025, and then dropping back to 7.22M, hinting at a cautiously stable employment scenario since the observations noted in July 2025.
If Friday’s employment data confirm these trends, many Federal Reserve members, who have battled inflation surpassing the 2% target for over four and a half years, might hesitate to lower rates further, potentially bearing negative implications.
The pivotal aspect of the Consumer Confidence figures centers on the 12-month inflation forecast. Recent months saw an increase to above 6.2% in August from 5.7% in July, though these numbers remain below the alarming peak of 7% noted in April. Yet, the latest PCE data provides illuminating insights underlining these trends.
“Both current situation and expectation components have weakened. Notably, consumer assessments of present job opportunities declined for eight consecutive months; however, stronger views on current business conditions mitigated the decline in the Present Situation Index,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board.
Responses from consumers indicated a mild uptick in tariff mentions, largely driven by persistent fears of price hikes. Concerns about high prices on food and grocery products, tied to inflation, also resurfaced in August.
