A seasoned cryptocurrency analyst has raised concerns about a potential deep correction for Bitcoin (BTC) if a historical pattern repeats itself. The analyst, Ali Martinez, pointed out that Bitcoin has previously shown a significant pullback trend after recovering from bear markets, specifically citing the post-recovery corrections in 2016 and 2019.
According to Martinez, Bitcoin’s first major correction after finding market bottoms in those years reached the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. He suggests that if history were to repeat itself, BTC could climb towards $50,000 before experiencing a 40% correction.
Martinez warns that such a correction from the $50,000 level could lead Bitcoin to fall to $30,000. At the time of the report, Bitcoin was trading at $42,281.
While signaling a potential major correction, Martinez also maintains a long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin. He predicts that the Bitcoin bull market could continue until the end of 2025, based on the halving cycle, with the next halving event scheduled for April 2024. The halving, which cuts BTC miners’ rewards in half, has historically coincided with Bitcoin’s bull markets.
Martinez further explains that Bitcoin is designed around four-year cycles, typically influenced by halving events, historically translating into three years of a bullish trend followed by a year of corrective downturn. He believes BTC is currently in an uptrend phase that could potentially extend until December 2025.
The analyst’s predictions highlight the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements and the potential for both short-term corrections and long-term growth, influenced by the halving events and historical market behaviors.