The United States is expected to witness the launch of its first spot Bitcoin ETF this month, with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) anticipated to approve 12 ETFs by January 10. Despite high expectations, VanEck’s advisor Gabor Gurbacs suggests that the ETFs might initially disappoint Bitcoin (BTC) investors.
Gurbacs believes that the immediate impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs on the market will be minimal. However, he emphasizes that the launch could potentially attract trillions of dollars to the cryptocurrency market in the long run.
Gurbacs shared his thoughts via his personal X account on January 1, stating that the initial effect of a spot Bitcoin ETF is largely exaggerated and may only see about $100 million in net inflows from large institutional investors after its release. He remains optimistic about the long-term impact on Bitcoin, referencing the price increase of gold following the launch of spot gold ETFs.
On November 18, 2004, State Street launched the first spot gold ETF, leading to a quadruple increase in gold prices over the following eight years, from $400 to $1,800. This surge took gold’s market value from $2 trillion to $10 trillion. Bitcoin currently has a market value of over $834 billion, roughly 41% of gold’s market value in 2004.
Gurbacs is confident that Bitcoin’s price trajectory could follow in gold’s footsteps, albeit at a faster pace due to Bitcoin’s limited supply and halving events that increase scarcity. He also notes that one of the key benefits of a spot Bitcoin ETF would be to legitimize Bitcoin in the eyes of institutional investors and nation-states.
Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart agree with Gurbacs, pointing out that while many focus on short-term data like daily ETF inflows, the real impact to consider is the long-term effect. Current Bitcoin prices show a 1.1% increase over the last 24 hours, trading at $42,525. Market commentators are divided, with some predicting a significant and sustained price increase following the ETF approval, while others expect a “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario, leading to a sharp price drop.