For the first time in over two years, those involved in Bitcoin trading are witnessing substantial financial setbacks, marking a noteworthy shift in the landscape of profitability. Recent weekly data from blockchain analysis underscores this downturn, indicating asset sell-offs since late December 2022 have resulted in losses. This marks a phase of weakened price momentum coupled with growing bearish sentiments in the market, echoing prior significant market cycles.
What is Triggering the Sudden Loss?
Data from CryptoQuant highlights a net loss of around 69,000 Bitcoins reported since December 23. Notably, this was the first such occurrence since October 2023 over a 30-day timeframe. A large portion of these transactions indicates that many traders closed out at prices below their initial investments.
Diminishing realized profits have been apparent since March 2024, partnered with a deceleration in Bitcoin’s price surges, resulting in erosion of profitability. This situation mirrors the 2021–2022 period, where net profits peaked in January 2021 subsequently declined, eventually transitioning into losses. A similar pattern appears foreseeable.
Are We Heading Towards a Bear Market Phase?
The latest figures reveal net realized Bitcoin profits at 2.5 million BTC, dramatically down from 4.4 million BTC in October 2025. These numbers parallel early bear market scenarios last experienced in March 2024, aligning with circumstances in March 2022 when momentum weakened and selling pressure characterised market metrics.
Parallels with past cycles are apparent; in March 2022, as downtrends grew, investors showed increased tendencies to sell below cost. Current observations suggest the psychological state of market players inclines towards caution, showing minimal intent for short-term recovery.
Noteworthy demand-side recovery remains elusive. While recent weeks witnessed whispers of mild rebounds, no significant push has been detected in on-chain metrics or ETF-related capital inflows. CryptoQuant emphasized, “Demand contraction has been noticeable over the last month, with past indicators aligning with this stagnant outlook.”
• Net realized loss of approximately 69,000 BTC has been reported since late December 2022, reflecting a shift in the market cycle.
• Bitcoin’s price momentum has weakened, resembling conditions reminiscent of the 2021–2022 cycle.
• Current market conditions suggest early bear market traits, similar to 2022 scenarios.
Industry experts are closely monitoring these developments, searching for signs of stabilization and recovery pathways. As demand indicators remain weak, market participants proceed with a cautious outlook, positioning themselves for potential further corrections or opportunities in this volatile period.
