David Schwartz, former CTO of Ripple, has sparked a lively conversation within the cryptocurrency sector concerning the inflated expectations surrounding XRP‘s value. Taking to social media, Schwartz offered an analytical perspective on the perceived mismatch between XRP’s market performance and the lofty online predictions. Instead of pinpointing a future price, he presented a rationale based on fundamental financial principles, raising intrigue over why market behaviors are not reflecting these ambitious forecasts.
Does Logic Govern XRP’s Valuation?
The debate ignited when a follower requested Schwartz to clarify that XRP will not hit $50 or $100. Reflecting on past hesitations to predict such heights, Schwartz emphasized that he once doubted XRP would even reach $0.25. Through logical reasoning, he illustrated how educated investment models should, in theory, inform stock pricing.
Schwartz argued that if many savvy investors perceived a 10% probability of XRP touching $100 within years, holding or buying, not selling, would make sense. Such beliefs should drive buying pressure, pushing prices up and exhausting available stock, keeping them above $10 if confidence existed. The persistent price levels suggest skepticism remains strong.
How Are Market Trends Shaping Up?
Presently, XRP trades at roughly $1.75, having slid over 8% in a week and 44% yearly. Experts note a 434-day sideways movement, one of XRP’s lengthiest, with prices 25% below the 200-day moving average, signaling a careful technical stance.
However, a flicker of optimism exists as spot XRP ETFs in the U.S. saw inflows totaling $92 million in January. Additionally, on-chain data highlighted the creation of 42 new wallets housing at least 1 million XRP since early 2026.
In the realm of institutional play, restrained projections are noted. By 2026, 21Shares foresees a potential target near $2.45, contingent on continuous ETF influxes and acceptance of Ripple’s stablecoin initiatives, aligning with Schwartz’s emphasis on calculated expectation.
“Those promoting unrealistic targets are often inconsistent with their investment actions,” Schwartz remarked.
Schwartz’s view invites reflections including:
- A persistent belief mismatch, as low market upheavals suggest.
- Potential growth driven by regulatory and technical developments, yet tempered expectations exist.
XRP’s journey through price speculation reflects broader themes of value estimation in crypto markets, highlighting the enduring tension between speculation and data-driven investment strategies. These dialogues, exemplified by Schwartz, continue to shape and challenge market convictions.
