Renowned crypto analyst DonAlt has issued a stark warning about the potential impact of a US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decision on a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). He speculates that a rejection of the spot Bitcoin ETF by the SEC could trigger a 37% drop in Bitcoin’s value from its current level, potentially damaging the market structure established between $33,000 and $38,000.
DonAlt attributes the recent Bitcoin rally largely to the anticipation of the ETF, suggesting that a rejection could send Bitcoin’s price tumbling back to levels around $27,000 to $28,000. He views this price point as a critical juncture that could significantly influence Bitcoin’s value trajectory in light of the upcoming ETF decision.
Despite traditional expectations of a price surge upon ETF approval, DonAlt cautions that the market may not react with a strong bullish trend, as much of the positive sentiment could already be priced in. He predicts a short-term increase followed by a potential sell-off, which could lead to a slight drop in Bitcoin’s value, possibly towards the $38,000 range.
Furthermore, DonAlt compares current cryptocurrency market trends to those seen in healthy stock exchanges where the performance of mid and small-cap stocks is crucial. He points to the rising popularity of altcoins like Polkadot, Cosmos (ATOM), and Solana (SOL), indicating increased interest in cryptocurrencies beyond major players like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This trend may signal a broader, more resilient market growth supported by real developments and applications built on these platforms.
Overall, DonAlt’s analysis presents a cautious outlook for Bitcoin’s price movement, highlighting the potential volatility in response to the SEC’s decision on the spot Bitcoin ETF and the broader implications for the cryptocurrency market.