Bitcoin is expected to surpass gold in value by mid-2025, driven by increasing institutional interest and support from various US states, according to JPMorgan analysts. An analysis highlights a noticeable change in the investment landscape, with cryptocurrency starting to challenge gold’s dominance in asset portfolios. Key factors contributing to this shift include growing trust in digital financial instruments and new institutional initiatives focusing on Bitcoin.
What Influences the Preference for Bitcoin?
The term “debasement trade” is used to explain a recent trend where investors seek refuge from currency devaluation, often toggling between gold and Bitcoin. While gold gained momentum from February to April, Bitcoin surpassed it in the last few weeks, gaining increasing preference. Although both assets have faced a performance dip this year, seasonal uncertainties have bolstered gold, yet potential Bitcoin developments could tilt the balance favorably in the latter half.
How Are US States Supporting Bitcoin?
Institutions and US states have taken to backing Bitcoin investments. For example, New Hampshire has embraced Bitcoin by integrating up to 5% of its reserves into it. Similarly, Arizona is working to establish a Bitcoin reserve strategically, albeit without any tax adjustments this year.
A decline in gold prices—around 8% from April’s end—has contrasted Bitcoin’s 18% rise, indicating a trend in asset preference. Withdrawals from gold ETFs are noticeable, while Bitcoin sees surges in capital inflows and futures markets are echoing this trend, showcasing an increase in Bitcoin activity.
Bitcoin’s upward trajectory isn’t solely due to gold faltering but also specific growth initiatives within the crypto scene. Firms like Strategy and Metaplanet are committing substantial investment into Bitcoin holdings, with Strategy aiming for $84 billion by 2027, having achieved nearly a third already.
Metaplanet, for example, reflects success in adopting Bitcoin, with an expansion to 6,796 BTC. Including increases in value post-March decline, their shift in asset strategy has resulted in exponential growth in net asset and market value.
The rising institutional demand and favorable policy shifts in US states are significantly enhancing Bitcoin’s appeal. These investment flows are aligned with market dynamics and supported by expert insights, signifying evolving preferences toward digital assets.
By the latter part of 2025, Bitcoin could demand a prominent market position bolstered by strategic investments and advantageous regulations. Evidence suggests a short-term scenario where Bitcoin obtains higher market value than gold. Monitoring these trends and policy changes will be crucial for investors in adjusting their portfolios to the ever-shifting digital asset space.
