After facing significant turbulence, Bitcoin could find stable ground around the $59,000 mark in 2025, according to a recent analysis by Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick. Despite recent sell-offs causing a shake in investor confidence, Kendrick remains positive, maintaining a prediction of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 and Ethereum hitting $4,000 by year’s end.
What Impact Does ETF Activity Have?
Kendrick attributes the recent market fluctuations to substantial outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and a liquidity strain linked to the SpaceX IPO. He notes that Bitcoin’s sharp decline to $59,375 on June 5 represents a dramatic drop of 53% from its peak of $126,000 observed in October.
In his latest assessment, Kendrick stated, “The crypto winter has ended, and we are now witnessing the market’s recovery phase.” Data indicates that over $5.72 billion has exited spot Bitcoin ETFs since the second week of May, as investors redirect funds in anticipation of SpaceX’s market debut.
Can Macroeconomic Shifts Aid the Market Rebound?
Kendrick is optimistic about the easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly dialogues between the US and Iran that could tame rising oil prices. A decrease in oil prices can relieve pressure on US bond yields, crafting a more conducive atmosphere for cryptocurrencies to flourish.
Brent crude oil prices are currently around $87 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate near $85. In a recent development, there’s talk from former US President Donald Trump about a potential US-Iran deal, although he later clarified discrepancies in the discussed terms.
Reaffirming his predictions, Kendrick mentioned, “If conditions stabilize further, Ethereum stands a chance to outperform Bitcoin in the short term.”
Kendrick proposed indicators to watch for market stabilization: announcing new Bitcoin purchases by major funds, a return to positive net inflows in US spot Bitcoin ETFs, and a continued fall in global oil prices. When his analysis was published, Bitcoin was hovering just under $64,000.
