A new analysis from CryptoQuant points to a critical development for Bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency slides below a historically essential on-chain support level. This influential mark identifies the average acquisition cost for investors holding between 10 to 10,000 BTC, who have actively moved their holdings within the past one to three months. Slipping below this threshold may have significant repercussions on Bitcoin’s market structure and momentum.
Who Are the Mid-Level Players?
These mid-sized Bitcoin holders are known for their substantial impact on the market, illustrating essential trends with greater immediacy than other investor categories. CryptoQuant’s latest discoveries show that this group’s average price stands at approximately $89,800. Surprisingly, Bitcoin hasn’t exceeded this level since January 2026, highlighting the significance of the ongoing decline.
Why Does This Matter Historically?
In past market cycles, these investors’ average cost basis has served as a pivot point for Bitcoin’s market transitions. For example, during the 2021 market highs, their average entry cost was around $33,700. Despite corrections, the price remained above this line, maintaining investor confidence. However, by 2022, Bitcoin dropped below this marker, decreasing by close to 30% and reaching $18,945, marking a bear market phase.
“In the past, this realized price level served as a structural boundary between bull and bear markets. When mid-sized, active holders fell into loss territory, it typically signaled underlying market weakness,” CryptoQuant highlighted in its assessment.
Throughout the 2021 intermission, Bitcoin’s value never breached this foundational cost, helping to sustain mid-sized holders’ optimistic outlook and ward off panic.
What’s Changed in This Cycle?
Currently, the dynamics appear altered. By late 2025, the average acquisition price increased to $94,000, and since December 2025, Bitcoin has struggled to rise above this. As of February 2026, it remains near $66,424, leading to an approximate 26% loss for mid-level holders.
The prolonged period of trading below this key level differentiates this cycle from previous ones that saw shorter downturns. CryptoQuant warns that enduring losses among mid-sized holders might hinder any substantial recovery.
In contrast to 2021, when mid-sized investors stayed out of the red even during corrections, the extent and length of the current downturn are critical. This suggests a structural shift and potentially signals weakness in the market.
- Average acquisition price for medium holders rose to $94,000 by end of 2025.
- Bitcoin has traded below this price since December 2025, with little recovery.
- As of February 2026, midpoint prices hover around $66,424, 26% below holder cost.
- Prolonged loss period may impede future market rebounds.
CryptoQuant remains cautious, asserting that without Bitcoin reclaiming this crucial level, assumptions of market recovery would remain unsubstantiated. They place greater emphasis on sustained trading below holder cost as a more accurate health indicator than short-lived spikes or dips in volatility.
