The crypto community eagerly awaits the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision on spot Bitcoin ETF applications, with speculation rampant about whether approvals will come by January 15th. Investors are using platforms like Polymarket to place bets on the outcome, with around $1.5 million wagered at the time of writing, and a majority purchasing “Yes” shares, indicating a belief in approval.
The value of shares representing the likelihood of a “Yes” or “No” decision fluctuates similarly to crypto market prices. Currently, a “Yes” share costs $0.79, while a “No” share is priced at $0.21. One of the largest stakeholders, known by the pseudonym “Kiwi,” holds approximately $421,000 in “Yes” shares, while the largest holder of “No” shares has about $15,000.
According to Polymarket, if any spot Bitcoin ETF application receives SEC approval by January 15th, the outcome will be deemed a “Yes.” Otherwise, it will result in a “No.” Participants will see their gains or losses realized by the deadline.
The platform indicates that the primary source of resolution for the market will be information from the SEC. However, they also suggest that a consensus from reliable reporting could be used to decipher the market.
Meanwhile, the betting process has attracted mixed reactions on Reddit, with some users criticizing it, while others have taken a more humorous approach. One user on the Cryptocurrency subreddit described the bet as foolish, akin to depositing a dollar to win ten cents, while another joked about potentially losing their child’s college fund and one more apologized to their grandchildren for their actions.