Bitcoin is targeting its April 2022 peak of $48,189, currently trading above $46,300. The market anticipates the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve a Spot Bitcoin ETF, likely on Wednesday, with concurrent ETF listings expected by the end of the week. This follows weeks of speculation after BlackRock’s ETF application in mid-June, with Bitcoin then below $30,000.
Casey Wagner suggests that the SEC may not hold a vote for Bitcoin ETFs, as no meetings are scheduled until Thursday. The previous futures ETF approval and spot rejection were granted without a vote. Material Indicators warn that if approval doesn’t come as rumored on Wednesday, it could signal a potential drop, with whales ready to shake out weak hands and buy at lower prices.
Despite the possibility for whales to buy from weak hands, they’ve had 1.5 years to do so. Bitcoin experienced a significant sell-off peak in November 2022, dropping to $15,500.
Today, new futures positions worth $1 billion were opened, and the market expects massive volumes following the ETF approval. Asset managers and funds have gathered substantial demand, with ETF issuers eager to stand out on the first listing day.
If the market sees the anticipated billion-dollar inflow, Bitcoin’s price peak could occur by Friday evening, followed by potential corrections. However, as billions continue to flow into Bitcoin, it remains challenging to motivate investors to sell. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, unlike futures ETFs, require physical Bitcoin reserves, which could lead to a supply squeeze and price increase as institutional and accredited investors buy in. The crypto market is full of surprises, and the future remains unpredictable.