Cryptocurrency analysts are delving into various on-chain metrics and indicators to determine if Bitcoin has reached a peak in the current bull run. One analyst, Thomas, highlighted the dominance of Tether (USDT) as a predictive tool for Bitcoin’s market peaks. According to Thomas, USDT dominance has consistently forecasted Bitcoin’s local peaks over the past six years, with a noticeable pattern: when USDT dominance hits the bottom of a specific trend line, a local peak in Bitcoin follows.
What Does Thomas’s Approach Involve?
Thomas’s theory is rooted in the idea that USDT dominance shows an upward trend over time, influenced by the distribution of coins and the role of stablecoins in the market. He emphasized that USDT-D, a measure of USDT’s market dominance, is crucial as it mirrors market dynamics when investors shift in and out of stablecoins.
Thomas argues that this metric not only predicts local peaks but can also inversely predict local bottoms during bear markets. While USDT-D may not pinpoint the exact bottom, Thomas believes it offers a reliable prediction within a reasonable range.
Can Bitcoin Break Its Recent Peak?
Recent observations by Thomas suggest that Bitcoin may have already reached a local peak, as USDT-D touched the trend line once again. When queried if Bitcoin is heading to new lows, Thomas clarified that this isn’t necessarily the case. Drawing parallels to the last bull run, he noted that the market could still rise and retest the lower end of the USDT-D chart. Thomas remains optimistic that Bitcoin could retest its support line multiple times in the coming months, indicating potential upward movement before reaching the peak of the bull run.
Concrete Inferences for Investors
• Monitor USDT-D trends for predicting Bitcoin’s local peaks and bottoms.
• Utilize USDT dominance metrics to inform long-term trading strategies for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
• Consider buying when USDT dominance is at the top of the trend line and selling when it hits the bottom.
Market Cycle Yet to Indicate a Peak
Other analysts echo a similar sentiment. Rekt Capital stated that the market cycle hasn’t peaked yet, and historical trends suggest the peak will occur sometime next year. Thomas plans to use the USDT-D trend line to shape his long-term trading strategy for Bitcoin and Ethereum, leveraging its predictive power to optimize buying and selling points.