The cryptocurrency market is experiencing volatility, drawing renewed focus on the four-year cycle theory, especially concerning Bitcoin‘s (BTC) bearish scenarios. Recently, Bernstein analysts have issued their updated insights following a market slump, presenting forecasts that illuminate the future trajectory of Bitcoin beyond current valuations.
What is Bernstein Forecasting for 2026?
Bernstein Research, part of AllianceBernstein (AB) with an impressive $867 billion under management, has gained a reputation for its commitment to providing in-depth cryptocurrency insights. Positioned in Nashville, Tennessee, the company boasts significant backing with Equitable Holdings holding a 68% share, tracing its roots to the French insurer AXA.
Guided by Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein’s team conveyed that the current cryptocurrency market is within a bearish cycle, likely to impact short-term investor strategies. Their assessment presents an intriguing outlook for 2026, characterizing the peak of Bitcoin’s last cycle, near $60,000, as the anticipated floor in four years.
Why Have Bitcoin Values Declined?
A significant factor in Bitcoin’s depreciation against gold is the intensified accumulation of gold by central banks globally, including China and India. This strategic shift has been overshadowing Bitcoin’s performance, contributing to last year’s struggles.
Bernstein identifies the previous two years as pivotal in a “corporate cycle” for Bitcoin, with total ETF inflows exceeding $165 billion. There’s also optimism regarding Kevin Warsh’s potential impact on enhancing cryptocurrency’s rapport with the Federal Reserve.
If these conditions align, Bitcoin could gain greater legitimacy within the central banking context by 2026. Bernstein’s team believes the crypto winter reflects a belated market adjustment, fostering hopes for 2026.
“The crypto winter isn’t at its inception but rather amid a delayed correction,” said a Bernstein representative.
Currently, Bitcoin is showing signs of resilience, achieving its first daily green candle in several days by maintaining levels near $78,000. For an optimistic 2026 outlook, surging past $82,000 and exceeding the ETF cost average are deemed vital milestones.
Key observations to monitor include:
- ETF investor behavior, potentially affecting short-term price shifts.
- Anticipated net withdrawals for 2026 due to historical outflows.
- Central banks’ gold purchase strategies and their implications for Bitcoin.
Market dynamics will heavily depend on ETF investors’ choices, as anxiety over costs below value may drive expedited sales, impacting the spot price. Previous trends suggest 2026 is posed to witness significant withdrawals, shaping Bitcoin and broader cryptocurrency landscapes decisively.
