James Check, a Glassnode analyst, has indicated a possible peak in Bitcoin‘s market, drawing parallels to its 2020 trend which preceded a historic price surge. On March 25th, his analysis highlighted similarities between Bitcoin’s current trajectory and its December 2020 behavior, just before the cryptocurrency soared to its highest value ever. Check’s examination is based on comparing the current price patterns with those from previous cycles, raising speculations about an impending market climax.
Comparing Market Cycles
The analysis by Check reveals that Bitcoin might be mirroring its December 2020 position, about 35 months following the April 2021 peak. He suggests that, consistent with past trends, Bitcoin could ascend to $73,750 by March 2024. Such a scenario would mimic the rapid price rise that occurred after December 2017’s record high, culminating in a swift climb to $64,000.
According to Check, Bitcoin’s recovery since the onset of bear market sentiments in April 2021 has been noteworthy. Although the price has technically breached its previous high of $69,000 from November 2021, April 2021 is viewed as the true peak due to notable sales by long-standing investors at that time, per on-chain data.
Presently, on-chain metrics show long-term investors offloading 257,000 BTC each month. This selling pattern echoes the distribution phase seen in prior rallies. Even the smaller investors, referred to as “Bitcoin shrimps,” are divesting their Bitcoin holdings, which contrasts with their accumulation behavior during the bear market. This trend supports Check’s peak prediction.
Despite evident selling pressures, Check highlights the market’s enduring strength and characterizes the ongoing bull market as one of the most robust historically. He anticipates a consolidation phase with possible slight fluctuations in the short term.
Setting Sights High
Building on his earlier forecast, Check maintains that Bitcoin could hit a staggering $250,000 by the end of this bull cycle. Current observations show Bitcoin grappling to stay above the $70,000 mark after a recent minor retreat.