Bitcoin is trading at $79,766, bolstered by ongoing inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). On-chain data indicate a reduction in the selling pressure from short-term investors capitalizing on gains. However, this easing does not guarantee a renewed price upswing. According to Farside data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $110 million yesterday.
Short-Term Selling Pressure Eases
Glassnode’s recent analysis suggests that investors who acquired Bitcoin in the near term have exited the zones associated with intense selling pressure. At the end of September, nearly all positions held by short-term investors were profitable, but this figure has now dropped to approximately 70%
“The reduced share of profitable positions indicates a decrease in the potential selling pressure from investors looking to realize gains. According to Glassnode, conditions for bullish momentum in Bitcoin have markedly improved compared to a month ago.”
Nevertheless, the shifting data should not be interpreted as a direct bullish signal. The decrease in pressure from profit-taking does not solely dictate Bitcoin’s future price direction.
Willy Woo’s Model Analyzes Bitcoin Cycles
Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo has introduced a Monte Carlo simulation model inspired by Sminston With. This model leverages Bitcoin’s past market performance to generate potential future price pathways through random number generation.
Woo noted three primary adjustments to the model. The first includes the integration of Bitcoin’s cyclical market structure into the calculations. Second, rather than fitting price movements to a pre-selected ideal probability distribution, Bitcoin’s historical probability distribution is reconstructed.
“The third adjustment pertains to the data period used. The model bases its calculations on data from the market bottom in 2018 to the low point in 2022, excluding older periods. Woo aims to generate outcomes that are more attuned to the contemporary market environment, shaped by derivatives, ETFs, and rapid liquidation mechanisms. The model also maintains a power law-based scaling mechanism to reflect Bitcoin’s diminishing returns in each cycle.”
Woo particularly highlighted the price pathway within the 28th percentile of outcomes. This pathway aligns with the pattern where the next market bottom may find support near the peak of the previous cycle.
In a separate Monte Carlo experiment previously shared by Sminston With, 5,000 simulations projected Bitcoin prices extending to 2034. None of the outcomes fell below a reference level of approximately $80,000, with the median result being around $1.48 million and the lower 5% of results at about $464,000.
Current data reveal a tangible development for Bitcoin, with ETF inflows persisting and a reduction in the pressure from short-term profit-taking. While long-term simulations provide potential price ranges, they do not offer a definitive outlook for Bitcoin’s short-term movement past $79,766.
