In the early hours, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) official account unexpectedly announced the approval of all Bitcoin (BTC) spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), causing Bitcoin’s price to surge to $48,000. However, the excitement was short-lived as the announcement was revealed to be fake, the result of a hack of the SEC’s account. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler confirmed the hack and clarified that no spot ETFs had been approved, leading to the removal of the announcement and a drop in Bitcoin’s price to $45,500.
QCP Capital analysts suggested that the market’s muted response to the fake approval news might indicate that the anticipation of a spot ETF had already been priced into Bitcoin’s value. They advised caution, hinting that the expected ETF approval might not trigger a significant rally.
Following the hoax, Bitcoin struggled to overcome resistance levels, while Ethereum (ETH) gained attention as it briefly dipped below a key threshold before recovering above the 0.051 level against Bitcoin.
QCP Capital analysts also noted that investors were closely monitoring the persistent high spread between spot and futures prices, which could offer a risk-free annual return of 12-17% if held until expiry. They anticipated that option volatility, heightened by ETF expectations, would normalize after the approval news, presenting new strategic opportunities.
Additionally, QCP Capital shared key technical levels for Bitcoin, identifying $40,000 to $42,000 as crucial support and $48,500 as the first significant resistance. They highlighted the attractive annualized 23% premium of a January 26, 2024, $38,000 put option, suggesting it as an opportunity given the potential for risk reversal and the upcoming block reward halving in April as a favorable buying point for long positions at the $38,000 level.
