As the SEC’s decision deadline on the Bitcoin ETF approaches, analysts maintain cautious optimism, with Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart giving a 90% chance of approval by January 10. Despite the high probability, analysts hesitate to go above 90%, fearing the SEC may seek more time instead of issuing a definitive rejection.
The Bloomberg analyst emphasizes that the lack of a certain approval percentage above 90% stems from the SEC’s perceived need for additional time. The preference to avoid outright denial highlights the significant efforts by both regulators and Bitcoin ETF issuers. The analyst goes so far as to describe a direct denial as a potential decade-long contention, underscoring the magnitude of the consequences such a move could entail.
Vetle Lunde from K33 Research echoes this sentiment in a recent market report, stating that the probability of a complete ETF rejection is only 5%. The consensus among analysts suggests that the likelihood of approval outweighs that of rejection. However, there remains a cloud of uncertainty, especially following a hypothetical outright denial. Balchunas speculates that fund providers could emulate crypto manager Grayscale and initiate legal action against the SEC.
If this scenario unfolds, it could lead to a swift reaction rather than a period of calm. Analysts argue that Bitcoin ETF proponents have invested too much time and resources to easily abandon their pursuit. Public sentiment reflected in comments submitted to the SEC reveals diverging opinions. Recent presentations as of January 2nd openly advocate for the ETF’s complete rejection.
While the industry awaits the SEC’s decision, market participants closely monitor potential changes in regulatory dynamics. The upcoming weeks will reveal whether the SEC will greenlight the Bitcoin ETF, potentially creating new opportunities for crypto investment within traditional financial structures. Alternatively, the SEC may choose to extend the industry’s anticipation by opting for further negotiations. Regulatory developments play a significant role in the ever-evolving cryptocurrency space.
The crypto community’s expectations reflect the importance of this decision. Stakeholders prepare for potential legal battles in the event of a rejection, while also hoping for a landmark approval. As the SEC’s deadline nears, the crypto community continues to present various perspectives to the regulatory body. The outcome of the ETF’s approval, delay, or outright rejection could have significant implications for the crypto market and its participants.
