The technical analysis of Bitcoin shows persistent weaknesses, hinting at further downward pressure in the market. Nonetheless, long-term metrics parallel historic patterns typical of bear cycle bottoms. As of July 3, 2026, Bitcoin trades at $61,848, marking a 0.84% increase in a day. With a daily trading volume of $36.14 billion and a market capitalization reaching $1.25 trillion, the cryptocurrency remains a focal point of market scrutiny.
What Do Historical Indicators Suggest?
The monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin, as noted by Michaël van de Poppe, has plunged to unprecedented lows. This particular decline aligns with periods close to historical market bottoms. As a tool for evaluating the vigor of price movements, the RSI has historically been a reliable indicator of oversold conditions when Bennet experiences lower values.
Van de Poppe remarks that Bitcoin’s current RSI numbers suggest one of the most intense downturns BTC has faced, demonstrating parallels with previous cycle lows in its trading history.
Is Selling Pressure Going to Continue?
Yes, selling pressure may persist according to the weekly RSI, which fell below 30, a rarity only matched during the drastic market sell-off in 2022. The current market scenario seems to replicate the 2022 pattern, with a notable downward momentum captured by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator.
Several on-chain metrics further suggest convergence towards bear market lows, as highlighted by van de Poppe, showing potentially continued challenges for Bitcoin amidst strong selling forces.
“The largest negative expansion seen on the weekly MACD reflects continued strong selling pressure, while certain on-chain signals also recall those apparent near earlier market bottoms,” van de Poppe observed.
Despite these pressures, Bitcoin remains within a crucial support range. With its price currently pegged at $61,893, it lies beneath significant moving averages, including the 20-week at $70,032, suggesting room for recovery if the asset breaks above this mark.
- Bitcoin holds near a vital support zone of $57,500–$62,000.
- The asset’s price is below important moving averages, providing a potential bounce back opportunity.
- Breaking above the 20-week moving average could signal a trend reversal.
Market participants continue to monitor volatility through Bollinger Bands. With Bitcoin trading near the lower band of $57,513, the market remains watchful. Holding the $57,500 level may facilitate a price recovery to $70,000, but failing to hold this line could renew downward pressure. Traders will focus on whether Bitcoin can sustain its supportive zone and edge closer to $70,000 in the coming weeks.
