As the crypto community anticipates the SEC’s decision on the Spot Bitcoin ETF, attention is shifting towards the 2024 Bitcoin halving event, historically known to catalyze mature bull markets by reducing miner rewards by half.
Historically, high volatility characterizes BTC price movements before halving events. In 2016, Bitcoin experienced a surge followed by a correction post-halving. In 2020, a significant drop occurred two months before the halving, linked to the COVID-19 crash.
The current BTC price trend, mirroring the 2019 fractal, suggests a potential drop. Analysts are on the lookout for signals of a deeper correction that could see Bitcoin fall by up to 53%, possibly revisiting the $23,000 level.
At the end of the 2017 bull market, BTC reached an all-time high just under $20,000, followed by an 84% drop to $3,215 in December 2018. A subsequent local peak of $13,764 was within the golden pocket region defined by the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
This local peak initiated a deeper correction, targeting the removal of the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Bitcoin fell to $6,477, a 53% loss. A recovery began, which could have lasted until the May 2020 halving, but the COVID-19 pandemic caused another dip, briefly sending Bitcoin back to $4,000 before recovering to around $9,000 just before and after the May 2020 halving.