The recent increase in Bitcoin‘s price, which spiked by 25% since early February 2024, can be attributed to the approval of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States and substantial purchasing by prominent investors. This bullish activity coincides with a dwindling Bitcoin supply and heightened mining difficulty, indications that miners might be prompted to offload their holdings. The Fear and Greed Index, currently showing extreme greed at 76, further suggests the potential onset of a sell-off.
Bitcoin Network Activity Surge Raises Questions
Analysts from CryptoQuant have observed a surge in Bitcoin network activity, spotlighted by a 40-50% augmentation in Bitcoin block sizes. This rise typically links to increased fees due to network congestion, yet such a fee hike has not been evident. This anomaly raises speculation over whether this is tied to large-scale Bitcoin transactions.
Robust Mining Difficulty and Hashrate Growth
While mining difficulty and block size operate on separate metrics, larger block sizes can intensify mining competition. Current data showcases a Bitcoin mining difficulty of 81.73T, with the hashrate nearly doubling in the past year from 303 EH/s to 577 EH/s. This steep growth could force miners, both individuals, and institutions, to contemplate selling their Bitcoin to sustain operations.
Declining Miner Reserves Signal Market Correction
The Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index (MPI) indicates increased selling pressure from miners, inciting anxiety among investors. Historical trends reveal that high MPI levels correlate with significant dips in miner reserves, often followed by a Bitcoin market correction. With miners’ reserves at a three-year low, compounded by spot Bitcoin ETF demand and broader market factors, exchange reserves might plummet below the crucial threshold of 2 million BTC by end November.
Concurrently, Spot Bitcoin ETFs observed a net influx of $323.90 million on the last trading day of the week, with total inflows since inception nearing $5 billion. Amidst these developments, Bitcoin’s price has declined over 1% in the past 24 hours, currently trading around $51,640. Furthermore, a noteworthy crypto analyst has recently forecasted a potential downturn in the coming days.