A recent report by Galaxy’s mining analysts, based on Coin Metrics data, forecasts significant changes in the Bitcoin mining landscape following the upcoming halving event. The report, released on February 14, suggests that the halving could lead to a 20% reduction in the network’s hash rate, predominantly affecting less efficient ASIC miner models.
Efficiency Determines Survival
With the Bitcoin block reward set to drop from 6.25 to 3.125 Bitcoins, only the most economical mining machines are likely to continue operations. Galaxy’s study indicates that older hardware, constituting 15% of the current Bitcoin hash rate, could become unprofitable and shut down, including models like Bitmain’s S9, Canaan’s A1066, and MicroBT’s M32.
Galaxy’s insight into the future highlights the changing profitability thresholds due to anticipated adjustments in power prices. The report points out that while some old models will cease mining completely, others, such as half of the MicroBT M20S and Bitmain S17 units, might remain in the game.
Future Outlook Post-Halving
The imminent halving is expected to affect all miners, yet new models like Antminer S19 and S19J Pro, along with Canaan’s A1246, which are responsible for over half of the hash rate, should largely remain operational. However, a portion of these might still become inactive in regions with higher electricity costs.
Galaxy’s report also delves into potential strategies miners may adopt to stay afloat, such as implementing special firmware for efficiency or relocating older models to areas with cheaper electricity. The anticipated Bitcoin block halving, set to occur around April 20 at block number 840,000, could reshape the mining equipment market, prompting upgrades to newer models for those seeking to maintain profitability.