Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, has experienced a significant drop, falling below the $40,000 mark. This decline is notable from its recent peak around $49,000 on January 11, 2024. Despite the breach of this critical psychological level, experts believe it may not necessarily trigger widespread selling, with the next support level anticipated around $38,000. An increase in the Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) suggests that the options market expects future volatility to be higher than historical data indicates, signaling investor uncertainty or risk aversion.
This data could imply that investors are increasingly concerned about potential downside risks. Short-term orders may be driven by fears of further declines, prompting investors to take swift protective measures. The crypto market is showing a general weakness across all cryptocurrencies following last year’s significant gains. However, Bitcoin’s value has risen by approximately 160% in 2023.
The recent uptrend was largely driven by expectations that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would approve the use of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Yet, following the SEC’s approval, the markets began to retract some of these gains. Additionally, the selling trend was influenced by speculative traders responding to news that was insufficient to sustain profit-driven actions.
This situation marks the first time since early December that the cryptocurrency has fallen to this price point. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recorded a figure of 34.18, indicating a potentially undervalued market condition. Concurrently, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) registered at -0.02, suggesting a slightly negative market sentiment. However, longer-term analysis shows a more bullish outlook with the RSI at 58.29 and the CMF at 0.16, indicating moderate positive money inflow into the market.