Bitcoin recently breached the $61,000 mark, triggering alarm over potential further declines. The cryptocurrency has seen a substantial dip, falling to a low of $60,760 on various exchanges. This current price represents a notable 17.5% fall from its record peak, as Bitcoin continues to wrestle with downward pressure stemming from a confluence of factors.
Factors Influencing Bitcoin’s Downward Spiral
Key influences on the recent price drop include withdrawals from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the looming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 20th is anticipated to have a predictable outcome, yet Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent comments are awaited for their impact on volatile assets.
The trade newsletter, The Kobeissi Letter, has suggested that despite the Fed meeting approaching, an interest rate change is unlikely. The newsletter emphasized the importance of future guidance, maintaining skepticism about a potential policy shift soon. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool aligns with this, indicating a mere 1% chance of policy alteration on March 20th, with a slightly higher probability of 9.1% for May’s session, and even greater odds of 55% for June.
ETF Activity Raises Eyebrows
Recent data from Farside, a UK investment firm, reports that spot ETFs have seen consecutive days of net outflows. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) experienced a relatively smaller outflow than the record $642 million on March 19th, but other ETFs have not seen significant inflows, resulting in unimpressive figures. Financial commentator Tedtalksmacro cited the cautious investor stance during FOMC deliberations and the US tax season as possible contributors to this trend.
Trading firm QCP Capital has issued a warning to its Telegram subscribers about the impact of these outflows on Bitcoin’s price stability. Although GBTC’s recent outflows were less severe at $443.5 million, QCP Capital speculated that unless offset by inflows into other ETFs, the continued net negative could lead to a breach in support levels.