The eminent block reward halving of Bitcoin, scheduled for April 19, could be the catalyst for a substantial price rally, per 10X Research’s analysis. The firm’s study indicates the potential for Bitcoin to eclipse its previous peak value prior to the halving event. The anticipated growth is driven by historical trends and technical analysis that suggest a bullish trend.
Analysts Predict a 30% Price Boost Preceding Halving
Analysts at 10X Research predict that Bitcoin could see a surge exceeding 30% within the eight weeks leading up to the block reward halving, based on past data and technical indicators. The ascent of the cryptocurrency’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) beyond the 80 mark, typically a precursor to robust price hikes, bolsters these forecasts. The anticipation is for the current upward trajectory to propel Bitcoin’s valuation to meet or surpass its historic high of $69,000.
Founder Markus Thielen notes the resemblance between the current price movement and the patterns recorded during past halving cycles, which usually saw an average price rise of 32% in the 60-day window before a halving. Thielen underscores the consistency of pre-halving price escalations as a reliable historical trend, suggesting a similar outcome for the upcoming halving.
Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators Strengthen Bullish Stance
Thielen also emphasizes the significance of market sentiment within cryptocurrency circles and traditional finance sectors, observing that the optimism surrounding the impending halving is encouraging robust buying behavior. This, coupled with the influx of capital into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicates a positive trend among conventional investors towards Bitcoin.
Enhancing the bullish outlook, technical analysis of the RSI indicator shows that Bitcoin’s 14-month RSI score surpassing 80 suggests a solid bullish momentum. Historical data supports a significant uptick in price following similar RSI levels, with forecasts projecting a potential climb to $74,600 within the next couple of months.
While historical data informs expectations, analysts remind that macroeconomic influences could sway the market. Nonetheless, current fiscal policy expectations in the US and global economic growth projections seem to favor risk assets. Goldman Sachs has adjusted its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 to 5,200, pointing to favorable economic signals and a softening dollar, potentially heightening confidence in Bitcoin among investors.