According to the latest K33 research report, the price of Bitcoin is expected to reach its all-time high much faster in this cycle. So far, this downturn period lasted 755 days. Bitcoin is currently trading at about 36% of its all-time high of $69,000 recorded in November 2021.
In comparison with K33, it is noted that the recovery in 2013 took 1,178 days, while the one after 2017 lasted 1,092 days. Analyst Vetle Lunde and Vice President Anders Helseth point out that the institutional demand in past cycles cannot be compared to the current one, and many major financial institutions have joined this space and openly support it.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), despite having previously approved funds based on futures in 2021, has yet to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF. The deadline for the SEC to approve, reject, or delay decisions on applications from firms such as BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie is in mid-January. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart suggests that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could happen between January 5 and 10.
Lunde and Helseth, based on data obtained from institutional analysts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, state that annual premiums for Bitcoin and Ethereum are above 17% and open positions are at an all-time high, hence profits have not yet been realized. The premium is the difference between the spot price of an asset and its future price.
Lunde and Helseth mention that the 164% increase in the Bitcoin price to date has not reflected an increase in retail participation. According to website traffic data and exchange reports, individual demand is currently lower than in the third quarter of 2022. Visits to crypto sites, used as an indicator of individual interest, dropped by about 50% compared to a year ago, which aligns with Coinbase’s third-quarter report highlighting a continuous decline in trading volume since 2021.
