Global markets have been invigorated by stronger-than-expected economic data from China and declining oil prices, creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin‘s recovery. According to CryptoAppsy, Bitcoin rose by 1.1% over the last 24 hours to approximately $82,500. However, experts remain divided on whether the cryptocurrency will exceed the $100,000 mark by year-end.
The stock market has mirrored this recovery, with Nasdaq 100 futures climbing over 1% during the same period. Japan’s Nikkei rose by 1.8% and South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.6%. Notably, the selling pressure that focused heavily on AI-related stocks last week appears to have eased.
Chinese Economic Data and Oil Prices Bolster Markets
Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the country’s economy expanded by 4.5% in the third quarter, up from 4.3% in the previous quarter. Retail sales also surpassed market expectations of a 0.5% increase, growing by 1.1% instead.
The data has bolstered expectations for a recovery in China’s economy, resulting in a 0.3% rise in Chinese stocks. Gold steadied near $4,180 per ounce, while the dollar index continued its decline from last week, remaining below the 102 mark.
Falling oil prices have also supported risky assets. U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to delay Russian-related sanctions, potentially increasing supply, led to a partial retraction of last week’s oil gains. Nevertheless, geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East remain a concern.
Markets anticipate that a continued decline in oil prices could alleviate inflationary pressures, thereby creating more favorable conditions for the U.S. Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts. Although the Fed raised its policy rate by 0.25 points last month, expectations for the upcoming meeting lean towards maintaining the rate at the 4.75%-5.00% range.
Institutional Demand and Fed’s Stance to Shape Bitcoin’s $100k Trajectory
Bitcoin’s current recovery has reignited debates over its year-end price. Crypto asset manager Bitwise is optimistic that Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 before the year concludes.
Ryan Rasmussen, Research Chief at Bitwise, identified institutional flows through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate Bitcoin acquisitions, and regulatory improvements as key drivers of the potential uptrend. Rasmussen argued that rising public debts might also boost demand for assets with limited supply.
On a cautious note, LO:TECH’s Research Head Adam Morgan McCarthy predicts Bitcoin’s price to settle within the $85,000-$95,000 range by year-end. McCarthy highlighted that markets assign nearly a 75% chance to a further rate hike in December following the Fed’s September increase, suggesting that monetary policy pressure could persist.
U.S. inflation figures released on October 14 add another layer of uncertainty. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.6% monthly, with the core index rising by 0.3%. McCarthy believes Bitcoin can only reclaim the $100,000 level if there is a slowdown in oil and consumer price increases, alongside a shift in expectations from rate hikes to stability.
Developments in derivative markets also support the possibility of an upward trend. Luca Invernizzi, Chief Trader at Nomura’s digital asset unit Laser Digital, noted that a significant closure of leveraged positions has reduced forced selling pressures. Invernizzi posits that should Bitcoin rise firmly above $90,000, it could trigger the liquidation of short positions, accelerating its ascent.
CoinShares Research Head James Butterfill observed a $11.1 billion inflow into crypto investment products since mid-July, though the buying momentum has recently slowed. Citing concerns over public finances, Butterfill emphasized the need for continued institutional inflows to sustain a lasting rally.
Michael Saylor, Strategy Board Chairman, believes Bitcoin is entering another bull market phase. In a recent Wu Blockchain interview, Saylor highlighted the expansion of Bitcoin custody and Bitcoin-backed loan services by banks over the next 12–24 months as pivotal for growth. He also pointed to the tokenization of securities as a supportive factor for Bitcoin’s expansion, suggesting that increased blockchain adoption by financial institutions could strengthen ties between digital assets and traditional markets.
