Bitcoin surged past $84,000 over the weekend following an announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to halt attacks on each other’s energy facilities. This development appears to have positively influenced Bitcoin’s rebound, despite net outflows of $1.223 billion from spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the United States last week.
ETF Outflows Breach Three-Week Inflow Streak
According to data shared by WuBlockchain on October 12, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. experienced a net outflow of $681 million for the week of October 5-9. This halted the momentum of net inflows seen over the past three weeks, indicating a pause in institutional capital entering these products.
In the same period, spot Ethereum ETFs recorded outflows of $542 million. BlackRock’s ETHA fund alone registered the highest net outflow, amounting to $477 million, which constitutes approximately 88% of the total net outflows from Ethereum ETFs.
The simultaneous withdrawal of significant funds from both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs signals a shift in fund flows in U.S. crypto investment products. However, these figures alone are not sufficient to conclude any changes in institutional investors’ medium- to long-term strategies.
Benjamin Cowen, founder of ITC Crypto, interpreted Bitcoin’s close above $83,000 as a sign of buyers maintaining control. He noted that sellers still need to demonstrate that they hold the market reins. Cowen expressed support for a regular buying strategy in years following U.S. mid-term elections, pointing to its effectiveness in 2018 and 2022 and expressing hope for similar outcomes in 2026.
Expectations from the Energy Ceasefire and Middle East Tensions
President Trump had previously taken to his Truth Social platform to announce Russia and Ukraine’s agreement to cease attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure. Asserting that the agreement was effective immediately, Trump urged both nations to abide by it.
The scope and duration of the agreement remain unspecified, nor has it been confirmed whether Russia has officially approved the terms. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine would comply with the ceasefire should Russia accept it. However, Zelensky also reported continued Russian airstrikes on energy facilities, including a strike on a co-generation plant in Kharkiv, leaving the impact of the announcement on field tensions uncertain.
Previously, Trump had requested that Zelensky halt attacks on Russian oil refineries, to which Russia responded by announcing diesel deliveries to international markets. Subsequently, Brent crude prices dropped by 1.2%.
While expectations of a ceasefire on the Russia-Ukraine front loom, tensions persist in the Middle East. On October 10, the Houthi rebels’ attack on Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid International Airport resulted in 12 casualties and over 300 injured, followed by another assault on October 11. The Houthis claimed these attacks retaliated against Saudi assaults on targets, including the airport in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa.
Markets are closely analyzing the conflicts in the Middle East for potential impacts on energy prices and inflation. Concerns about supply disruptions have elevated oil prices since conflicts between the U.S. and Iran erupted in February, bolstering the possibility of major central banks raising interest rates.
