In a significant downturn, Bitcoin dipped below $62,000, marking its lowest point since August, before recovering to $64,830. According to Anchorage Digital’s Director of Research, David Lawant, this recent depreciation has been primarily driven by selling pressure in the United States. His analysis identified Coinbase as the exchange with the most notable imbalance favoring sell orders over buy orders.
Coinbase Selling Spree Outpaces Buying by 8,900 BTC
Lawant’s data highlights that between November 9 and 14 on Coinbase’s major spot Bitcoin pairs, sell orders exceeded buy orders by approximately 8,900 BTC. This indicator, known as cumulative volume delta (CVD), measures the disparity in the total volume of initiated buy and sell orders.
On Binance, the selling excess was around 3,100 BTC, on Bybit 700 BTC, whereas OKX experienced a buying surplus of about 1,400 BTC.
Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Face Increased Losses
Cryptocurrency analyst Murphy pointed out a worrying rise in the Short-Term Holder Profit and Loss (STH-PSIL) indicator to 73%, signaling increased losses for short-term Bitcoin holders. This indicator climbed to 51% and 67% during prior corrections influenced by rate hikes and a banking crisis.
Murphy drew parallels to the 2019-2020 period, where a similar measure peaked at 97% during an initial downturn, with market recovery taking nearly a year. He warned that investor confidence is waning and those who invested at higher prices might sell as the price nears their cost basis. Despite this, Murphy maintained his substantial position acquired from February to June, given current prices hover near his acquisition cost.
Thorne’s Recovery Milestone Targets $73,000 First
James E. Thorne, a strategy analyst at Wellington-Altus, maintains that Bitcoin’s inverse head-and-shoulders pattern remains intact. He identifies the left shoulder at $59,000 and the head around $57,000, with the right shoulder still developing. Thorne attributes recent declines to the liquidation of leveraged positions but sees the fundamental outlook for Bitcoin unchanged, suggesting panic selling may provide a buying opportunity.
Thorne argues that for the pattern to confirm, Bitcoin needs to reclaim $73,000 and then surpass $87,000.
If this formation holds, Thorne projects Bitcoin could reach $117,000 by mid-2027, potentially breaking through a historic peak of $126,000 and reaching $150,000-$170,000 by year-end. However, if Bitcoin falls below $57,000, this scenario would be invalidated.
To reach the first milestone of $73,000 from $64,830, Bitcoin must appreciate approximately 12.6%. However, continued selling pressure on Coinbase and investors moving to sell as they near their cost basis could jeopardize this recovery.
