Leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin is poised for a rebound in July following a disappointing June performance. Analysts highlight a 7% price drop for Bitcoin last month. Historical data from Coinglass, which monitors Bitcoin’s monthly returns since 2013, reveals that Bitcoin typically underperforms in June, with an average decline of 0.35%. However, July has historically been a robust month for Bitcoin, often making up for the June losses.
Why Does Bitcoin Recover in July?
Crypto market analyst Ali Martinez notes that Bitcoin generally sees a strong bounce back in July after a weak June. Martinez points out that Bitcoin gains an average of 7.42% in July following a negative June. This pattern is supported by data showing that Bitcoin has recorded at least an 8% gain in seven of the last eleven Julys, reinforcing a mid-year recovery trend.
Another analyst, Murad, shared with his 103,000 social media followers that Bitcoin has consistently seen a minimum of 28% gains in the initial weeks of July over the past six years. This historical performance has sparked optimism among Bitcoin investors, who are hopeful for similar results this year.
What Could Affect July’s Performance?
Several factors could complicate July for Bitcoin compared to previous years. Analysts exercise caution against significant Bitcoin sales by the German government and the upcoming repayments from the defunct Mt. Gox exchange. The Mt. Gox repayments, expected to begin in early July, involve returning approximately $8.5 billion worth of Bitcoin to creditors, potentially increasing market selling pressure.
Despite these concerns, some analysts believe that the impact of the Mt. Gox repayments may be less severe than anticipated. They estimate that only about $4 billion of the $8.5 billion will likely enter the spot market, which could mitigate some downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
Key Insights for Investors
Investment Takeaways:
- Historical trends suggest a robust performance for Bitcoin in July, often offsetting losses from June.
- Analysts forecast an average gain of around 7.42% in July, based on past data.
- Potential selling pressures from Mt. Gox repayments could influence July’s performance.
- Approximately $4 billion of the $8.5 billion Mt. Gox repayment could enter the market, lessening anticipated impacts.
Conclusion
Jonathan de Wet, Chief Investment Officer of ZeroCap, observed that Bitcoin has traded steadily between $60,000 and $65,000 despite various challenges. He expects Bitcoin to stay within this range but warns that the price could dip to the key support level of around $57,000 due to the Mt. Gox repayments. Historically, Bitcoin has shown its strongest monthly performance in November, with an average gain of 46.81% since 2013. While July typically favors Bitcoin, upcoming challenges could put this trend to the test.