Since the January 12th drop, Bitcoin‘s price has been trading in a narrow range, stabilizing around $42,500. This stability is fueled by ongoing GBTC redemptions and concerns over thousands of BTC being transferred to Coinbase. Investors hoping for a rise have seen hundreds of millions of dollars in BTC leave Grayscale’s reserves.
A potential surge was anticipated yesterday, but a 5-hour Coinbase hearing yielded no clear outcome. The legal battle between SEC and Coinbase may take longer than expected, with Coinbase currently appearing to have a stronger case, as the judge remains unconvinced by the SEC’s arguments. A Coinbase victory could limit the SEC’s ability to classify all altcoins as securities.
The recent decline in altcoins is attributed to Bitcoin’s weakness. Cryptocurrencies have been trading within a rising parallel channel since December 2023, typically including corrective movements. The channel’s resistance line was rejected on January 11th, leading to the ongoing decline, which is the technical reason for the fall.
Currently, the cumulative value of cryptocurrencies has found support at $1.61 trillion. A drop below this level or a bounce from it will determine the trend direction. Breaking below the support could lead to a 15% drop to $1.4 trillion, potentially triggering 30-40% sell-offs in most altcoins.
While BTC’s price also traded within a rising parallel channel during the same period, it broke out of this channel on January 12th, suggesting an end to the upward movement. BTC has yet to overcome this region, indicating a potential continuation of the decline. The most likely scenario suggests a possible 12% drop to $37,700 for BTC, but a recovery of the channel’s support line could lead to an attempt towards $48,250.