Bitcoin, according to TradingView data, traded around $80,504, with market participants in a search for direction. Insights from Glassnode and Fasanara Digital indicate that derivative products linked to traditional financial assets are gaining increased traction on cryptocurrency trading platforms. This shift coincides with a period of weakness for Bitcoin.
Traditional Assets Rise in Crypto Derivatives
The fourth-quarter 2026 report by Glassnode and Fasanara Digital highlights that perpetual futures linked to stocks, indices, and commodities gained prominence as the volume of crypto-centric derivatives waned. A notable uptick was observed on the Hyperliquid platform in contracts tied to traditional finance.
Hyperliquid, renowned for its on-chain perpetual futures infrastructure, saw August’s traditional finance-linked perpetual futures volume surpass Bitcoin-focused perpetual futures by more than three times. In September, this gap started to narrow again.
Glassnode reported that the traditional financial assets-related perpetual futures volume on Hyperliquid exceeded Bitcoin-based volumes by over threefold in August, though balance was gradually restored in September.
However, this data does not necessarily signify a massive capital outflow. The growth in derivative trading volume does not imply that investors are selling Bitcoin in favor of equities or commodities. Instead, it reflects a change in trading preferences.
High Oil Prices Exert Macro Pressure
CryptoQuant cautioned that Brent crude oil prices hovering above $100 per barrel could pressure Bitcoin. The firm suggests that elevated energy costs may stoke inflation concerns, potentially limiting liquidity allocated to riskier assets.
CryptoQuant assesses that Brent crude’s persistence above $100 could bolster inflation expectations, creating an adverse environment for risky assets like Bitcoin.
According to its historical analysis, Bitcoin’s performance often faltered when oil prices sustained rises above their 365-day average. Factors like geopolitical tensions and concerns over energy supply were also contributing to high oil prices. Yet this correlation does not prove that Bitcoin prices necessarily fall when oil prices rise.
Cautious Short-Term Indicators
TradingView’s summary shows 12 sell signals, nine neutral signals, and five buy signals for Bitcoin. Its price remains below the 20-day exponential moving average at $82,087 and the 50-day simple moving average at $81,813. The RSI indicator stands at 43, while MACD and momentum indicators further validate a weak outlook.
Conversely, the CCI indicator at minus 128 suggests a possible short-term rally. The $81,950 vicinity is closely watched as a threshold in the market. Sustaining above this could lead to targets of $86,710 and $88,986, whereas downward movement could focus first on the $77,190 to $76,526 range, extending to $74,249 in deeper retreats.
Prospect of $74K Remains
Bitcoin’s short-term forecast hinges on whether buyers can reclaim the $82,000 region. Weak momentum, rising oil prices, and shifts in derivative market preferences add to the uncertainty. While none of these factors alone confirm a steeper drop, a pullback towards $74,000 remains possible.
