Crypto analyst and investor Ali Martinez has suggested that historical data could be key to predicting the duration of Bitcoin‘s (BTC) potential bull run, indicating that Bitcoin could maintain an upward trajectory for over 600 days. He drew parallels with Bitcoin’s past bull cycles, hinting at a possible peak around October 2025 if the patterns repeat.
Martinez warned that short-term BTC holders, who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days, might face headwinds due to their cost basis. A drop below $38,130 could lead to losses for these holders, potentially triggering a panic sell-off.
The expert believes that Bitcoin, which has been in its fifth major market correction since the start of the last year’s momentum, is likely to resume its broader uptrend after completing the current correction. He noted that during the bull market, BTC experienced four significant corrections, with declines ranging from 12% to approximately 21%.
However, Martinez cautions that if Bitcoin fails to hold the $38,000 support level, it could correct down to the $33,000 level. He concluded by emphasizing the importance of the $33,000 support cluster, which combines several technical factors, including the lower boundary of a parallel channel, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, and the 50-week simple moving average (SMA). These factors could form a significant defensive line against further price drops.