Experienced analyst Adrian Zdunczyk predicts a thrilling year for Bitcoin in 2024, based on a combination of chart technicals, pattern studies, fundamental factors, and seasonal records. Bitcoin’s performance in early January 2024, with a 12% gain in December 2023 followed by over 7% in the first two days of the year, has positioned it around $46,000. Zdunczyk believes January’s performance, particularly in the S&P 500, can set the tone for the whole year, with an 83.6% chance of strengthening Bitcoin’s bullish stance.
The analyst points out that Bitcoin could consolidate its bullish market position with an exceptionally strong S&P 500 return. He highlights the weekly chart of BTC, showing $30,000 as a strong support level and resistance levels between $48,000 and $50,800, reinforced by rising 50-week and 200-week averages.
Zdunczyk also notes the importance of the fourth block reward halving in mid-April 2024, which, combined with hopeful expectations for an ETF approval, places Bitcoin at the center of speculation. The potential BlackRock iShares spot Bitcoin ETF application underscores the critical nature of institutional participation, which could lead to trillions of dollars flowing into the crypto market.
Despite current bullish conditions, Zdunczyk urges caution based on technical indicators. The daily RSI and ATR indicators suggest potential slowdowns in buying momentum and increased volatility. Meanwhile, the BirbicatorPRO’s dynamic ATR trend model indicates strong resistance levels at $44,725 and $43,970 on the weekly timeframe, suggesting that a consolidation period may not be over yet.
Zdunczyk observes the continued high level of ‘greed’ in the market, indicative of a speculation-driven bull environment, but also points out the rising Bitcoin mining costs at $44,550, hinting at short-term profitability issues. However, he underscores the possibility of an average 13% monthly gain based on historical January data and seasonal trends.
Analyzing historical quarterly data, Zdunczyk estimates a target price level of approximately $52,000 for the first quarter of 2024. He suggests that significant sales should not be expected during this quarter, drawing parallels between Bitcoin’s behavior and beta-volatile tech stocks in the Nasdaq.