Bitcoin faces a critical test as it attempts to hold its ground at the $100,000 threshold. The latest analysis from Glassnode reports a dip below the $112,500 mark, a pivotal zone for short-term participant costs, signaling the conclusion of the last bullish wave. The ensuing 21% decline has left the market in a fragile state of balance. Experts point out that while the current market condition has not resulted in a panic sell-off, long-term holders are progressively reducing their positions.
Why Is Bitcoin Experiencing Selling Pressure?
Blockchain data suggests Bitcoin is struggling to maintain demand near $100,000. With 71% of Bitcoin’s supply profitable below short-term cost levels, it fits the criteria for a standard correction. Glassnode’s data identifies the $88,500 range as a critical support level, serving as a foundational point in past market consolidations.
Since July, there has been a reduction of 300,000 BTC held by long-term investors. This shift from selling at cycle peaks to offloading during declines demonstrates waning confidence among seasoned market participants. Their actions reflect a significant sign of erosion in trust towards market forecasts.
What’s Behind the Dwindling Institutional Interest?
Recently, Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have experienced daily outflows ranging from $150 million to $700 million, a significant shift from the heavy inflows observed earlier in autumn. This change marks a considerable decrease in institutional engagement. Spot exchange data points to ongoing selling pressure, with major platforms like Binance showing net outflows, while Coinbase remains relatively stable.
In futures trading, the reduction of leveraged positions has diminished the directional premium from $338 million to $118 million, indicating a move towards neutral strategy by derivatives traders. The options segment also reflects this sentiment, with a growing interest in put options at $100,000 and rising premiums signifying a shift toward defensive actions rather than speculative buying.
Key observations include:
- Bitcoin’s failure to maintain $100,000 signals potential for further declines.
- Long-term holder distributions have increased notably by 300,000 BTC since mid-year.
- Institutional outflows from ETFs display a downturn from previous positive trends.
- Derivatives markets indicate a preference for hedging over speculative longs.
Market volatility and strategic repositioning characterize the current Bitcoin landscape. Glassnode notes,
“A persistent downturn in institutional interest and strategic offloading by long-term holders mark the current phase of the market.”
As these dynamics continue to develop, Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain the $100,000 level remains a focal point for both investors and analysts alike.
